Saturday 28 April 2007

Chinese President Holds Talks With GMD Leader In Beijing


In another shot in the propaganda war between Beijing and the pro-independence Taiwanese President, Chen Shui Bian, Chinese President Hu Jintao has held talks with the Honorary Chairman of the Guo Min Dang, Lien Chan at the Great Hall of the People. Lien Chan was among 300 Taiwanese dignitaries meeting as part of the Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Forum.


The Forum will be discussing issues such as direct cross straits flights, education and the regulations governing mainlanders' travel to Taiwan.

Source: China Central Television

Beijing Torch Relay Controversy


With the Chinese government calling in talent such as Zhang Yimou to direct the opening ceremony and controversial plans to send the Olympic torch through Tibet and Taiwan, the 2008 Olympics are arguably shaping up as an unprecedented propaganda opportunity for Beijing.

The planned Taipei leg of the torch relay has prompted criticism from Taiwanese officials who view it as an blatant attempt to undermine their "sovereignty". It is understood that Taipei is uncomfortable being included in the torch's domestic route and will only consider participating if the torch enters the island from a territory external of Chinese sovereignty.

Furthermore, in a move tipped to spark more protests and internal unrest, the Olympic torch is also scheduled to pass through Tibet where only this week four US citizens were arrested for posting a banner calling for the region's independence.

Mao's Second Son Dies


The last known surviving son of Mao Zedong, Mao Anqing has died in Beijing at the age of 84. Born in Changsha in 1923, Anqing was the second son of Mao and Yang Kaihui. His mother was brutally executed by a warlord in 1930, and Mao fondly recalled her as the love of his life. Anqing was sent to Moscow, where he remained until 1947 and fought for the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany in the Second World War.

After returning to China, he fought with his brother in the Korean War. His brother died in action in 1950 as a result of a prolonged American air raid on Chinese forces. After the war, Anqing was periodically admitted into mental institutions, with many blaming his wartime action and an earlier police beating for his mental illness.

Anqing was later employed by the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences and the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to translate Marxist materials from Russian into Chinese. He was also the author of several party approved biographies of his father.

He is survived son, Mao Xinyu and grandson, Mao Dongdong who are believed to be the only surviving male descendants of Mao Zedong.

Sources: Xinhua News Agency and The Independent.

Thursday 26 April 2007

China Set to Become World's Largest Polluter By November

A leading environmental economist has predicted that China will become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases by November. Previous estimates indicated that China would overtake the US by 2009 or 2010, but the rise and rise of the Chinese economy and its dependence on carbon emmissions threaten to bring the date forward to the latter half of this year.

China's participation in multilateral processes on climate change has long been a point of contention among analysts with some claiming Beijing's public commitments to emissions reduction are nothing short of disingenuous. Moreover, despite being a party to the Kyoto protocol, as a developing country China has no formal target for emission reductions.

Dr Faith Birol, from the Intenational Energy Agency asserts that within 25 years China will "double the CO2 emissions which will come from all the OECD countries put together - the whole US, plus Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand" .

If China is serious about combating climate change, it will need to fundamentally reform its bureaucratic and economic structures. Last year, the Environment Minister claimed that despite the emergence of tough new laws designed to clamp down on polluting industries, businesses simply bribed local officials to issue compliance certificates.

At least on face value however, the Chinese appear to be serious about changing their image especially in the preparation for next year's Olympics. I remember watching a government advetisement on Beijing Television last year, which called for Beijing's citizens to take public transport at least one day a week in the name of a 'green Beijing'. Beijing is abundant with rumours the government will close down factories around the city for months before the summer olympics and ban all traffic from entering the city throughout the duration of the games.
Sources: The Guardian

Wednesday 25 April 2007

Taiwan: Reading the Green Tea Leaves




Security analysts have long pondered the implications of any military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan. Any conflict has been presented as the gravest threat to international security short of a North Korean or Iranian nuclear strike. The Taiwan issue is a relic from old Cold War security paradigms intertwined with a renewed mainland nationalism and an assertive leadership in Taipei. Furthermore, the international community is ill-equipped to intervene in a conflict involving a sovereign state and an entity effectively unrecognised by the majority of states.
While not wanting to play down the severity of the issue nor the entrenched sentiment of the mainland and the Taiwanese alike, I argue that the issue isn't as clear cut as is often portrayed in the international media. It is not as if hardline Chinese are gagging to invade the tiny island, nor are the overwhelming majority of Taiwanese busting to declare independence.

An expert in Chinese strategic policy argues that since economic modernisation and the continued pressures associated with Taiwanese growth, the mainland has been exercising a policy of 'tightening the economic noose' in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Simply, cheap labour and the mainland manufacturing base firmly hold Taiwanese prosperity hostage to the western side of the Taiwan straits. Roughly 75% of the Taiwanese economy is dependent on the mainland and any declaration of independence threatens to undermine the quintessential liberal-democratic success story that is Taiwan.

Furthermore, public opinion in Taiwan is deeply divided on independence and indeed the wider fabric of Taiwanese identity is starkly wedged between loyalty to a distinctly 'Chinese' culture and to a Taiwanese construct of identity. A British survey of more than 3000 Taiwanese residents demonstrated that 45% support independence, 45% support the status quo/reunification and the remainding 10% support becoming an American state! Most Taiwanese are at a loss to identify themselves with any particular cultural construct or nation-state -- some claim to be Chinese, others Chinese-Taiwanese, Taiwanese-Chinese and some Taiwanese.
It seems that Taiwan's pro-independence President Chen Shui-Bian holds many of the cards that will determine the future of China's nationalism and indeed the wider survival of multilateral security. Once again, opinion in Taiwan is divided regarding support for Chen's government and its policy priorities. The trend from most reputable opinion polls points to 50% support for Chen and 50% for the opposition, pro-reunification Guo Min Dang party.

To make reading the tea leaves that much harder, Chen's presidency has been rocked with serious corruption scandals and allegations of graft and bribery have dogged the First Family. As the bearer of the highest office in the land, Chen is immune from prosecution yet mass protests calling for his resignation continue to undermine his reform agenda.

My concern is that whilst the corruption scandals continue to dominate headlines and threaten Chen's legacy, the president may use the independence card to distract public attention and manipulate global interest in Beijing stemming from the 2008 Olympics. There is still talk of a referendum on a new Taiwanese constitution that is the alleged forerunner to a declaration of independence and I fear that in the spirit of desperate politicians, Chen may turn to this as a means to his legacy.

A Taiwanese declaration in the Olympics year would certainly test the patience of Beijing. I cannot imagine an assertive military response in the middle of 2008 -- with 30,000 foreign journalists in Beijing garnering global attention, a missile strike threatening the 'self-determination of the Taiwanese people' wouldn't look good for a nation trying to present a benevolent image for the 21st century.

With the Olympics and increasing domestic pressure on Chen, 2008 could be a dangerous year for cross strait relations. It will be a year to watch at both ends of the straits.

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Forthcoming Broadcast By Sinophile on SBS Radio


The Sinophile is in the process of editing a story on Chinese popular culture in modern China for SBS Radio's top rating Alchemy program. Other stories on politics, economics and popular culture in China will be broadcast later. Podcast details to follow...

Modernisation and Dissent?


Through the eyes of a friend, I took a glance at the Middle Kingdom’s economic modernization and its implications on political dissent among China’s new middle class.

China, China, China -- it dominates our headlines, we are told 'it is the defining power of our century representing a change of the international order and the beginning of the end of US unipolar hegemony'. The Chinese economic miracle is the stuff of legends; in the last 30 years, more people have witnessed an increase in their standard of living than at any period in human history.
With the exception of the occasional rural protest, mass dissent in China has arguably been crushed since 1989. Observers argue that unless economic growth slips behind 4-5% for a few consecutive years, China's new middle class will remain silent and will not cry out for political representation.

Take my old friend Mr Wang as an example. Mr Wang is the eldest of 8 children, one of his siblings died in infancy from the common cold and another perished from malnutrition at the height of Mao's Great Leap Forward. Mr Wang's family were good socialist workers who came from a long line of peasants -- they embraced the People's Liberation Army as saviours when they took the family's village in the 1940s. The family moved to Beijing, gained residency and took up positions in one of the top state-run work units in Beijing. Life was looking up for Mao's children of the revolution and they invested great faith in the Proletarian Dictatorship as the new guardian's of the Mandate of Heaven.

Then the 'Great Leap Forward'; this was a disastrous attempt by Mao to overtake British steel production within 15 years, enjoy bumper grain harvests and service phenomenal debt to the Soviet Union. It was a total disaster -- within 5 years of the Communist Land Redistribution, the peasants were forced to join 'People's Communes', all property now belonged to the State and upwards of 30 million people perished. Family life was all but eradicated. As local officials grossly exagerrated harvest figures to please the party leadership, China lost its capacity to feed itself.

Mr Wang remembers being forced to scrape bark off trees and boil grass for his family's sustenance as a boy. Yet even as his 2 siblings passed away and as China starved to death, Mr Wang still possessed an enduring faith in the party embodied in the teachings of Chairman Mao. "What choice did I have? What else did we know? Without the Party, there was only Chiang Kai Shek and the imperialists in the West", he remembers.

In the Cultural Revolution, Mr Wang joined the Chinese military and deemed himself fortunate to be posted as a kitchen hand, "I could eat meat everyday”, he explains, “in the kitchen we always got the best rations". Safe from the political upheavals raging through Beijing, life in the People's Liberation Army saved my friend's political skin. After leaving the army, Mr Wang became a floor worker in a Beijing factory, eventually becoming his workshop’s party secretary and secured promotion to a management position after the company signed a joint-venture agreement with a prominent global corporation.

Yes, things were looking up for Mr Wang. He is a direct beneficiary of Deng Xiaoping’s reform and he now owns a townhouse in Beijing and drives a European car, travels abroad and retired at age 50. Yet Mr Wang says he feels “betrayed” by the Communist Party. “During the Mao era when we were promised a communist paradise, he dies and we get capitalism with authoritarian rule. Then all those young people were slaughtered at Tiananmen and it broke my heart. There is no point in even caring about politics anymore, you might as well just go out and get rich, that’s why so many former dissident leaders are now business people and don’t give a stuff about politics”.

Mr Wang is still a member of the Party, still laments the loss of dissent, just returned from yet another trip abroad and is contemplating his next car…

Tuesday 24 April 2007

PRC to Develop Super-jumbo


Chinese state media have reported the PRC's ambition to develop its own super-jumbo, potentially upsetting the effective global duopoly shared between Boeing and Airbus. Chinese aviation officials, bureaucrats and media have painted the move as a major step in nation building and may prove unsettling to Western corporations and governments.


It is unclear if the proposed super-jumbo will be primarily about satisfying the increasing domestic market or if it will target foreign aviation markets. The mainland market has proven consistently lucrative for Boeing and Airbus as increasingly heavy pocketed consumers turn to air travel. In the last 10 years, 138 million Chinese travel by plane every year, this represents an increase of 105%. This demand has translated to 60 Chinese orders for its new Dreamliner, and Airbus has received 100 orders including 5 for its new A380 super-jumbo.
Source: The Guardian